The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index declined by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased four points from March to 92 but remained far above the historical average of 68. Seasonally adjusted, 34 percent of business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April, down six points from March.
“Uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for NFIB. “While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments.”
Key findings include:
- The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell six points from March to a net 15 percent (seasonally adjusted), the lowest since last October. This component, along with unfilled job openings, contributed most to the Optimism Index’s decline.
- The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell four points from March to a net negative 1 percent (seasonally adjusted). This is the fourth consecutive month real sales expectations declined.
- A net negative 4 percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, down three points from March and the lowest reading in 11 months.
- Eighteen percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, down three points from March. The last time the percent of firms planning capital outlays was this low was in April 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as the single most important problem for business was unchanged from March at 19 percent, remaining the top issue for the third consecutive month.
- Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from March and the lowest reading since September 2021. Inflation is now ranked in third place as the single most important problem.
- When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 13 percent reported excellent (up two points), and 56 percent reported good (up three points). Twenty-seven percent reported the health of their business was fair (down four points) and 4 percent reported poor (unchanged).
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 34 percent of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April, down six points from March. Of the 56 percent of owners hiring or trying to hire in April, 85 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 13 percent of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up one point from March.
In April, the percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 9 percent for the fourth consecutive month. A net negative 8 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up three points from March and the highest reading since September 2023.
Among owners reporting lower profits, 38 percent blamed weaker sales, 14 percent cited usual seasonal change, 11 percent blamed the rise in the cost of materials, 9 percent cited the price change of their product or service, and 8 percent cited labor costs.