The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index for October was 97.8, down 0.1 points from September and slightly below the 53-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell 6 points from September to 84, the lowest level since December 2025.
“There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for NFIB. “Even with inflation pressures continuing to strain operations, more Main Street owners reported their businesses in good or excellent health, and actual sales improved. Looking ahead, continued strength in consumer spending will support economic growth, while persistent inflation, labor shortages, and policy risks will weigh on the small business outlook.”
Key findings of the October survey include:
- The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25 percent, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month.
- The second top issue in October was taxes, which rose notably from September. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem.
- Small business owners’ self-evaluation of the health of their business shifted positively, with more reporting their business as excellent and good rather than fair.
- In October, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8 percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months.
- Eleven percent (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up 4 points from September.
A seasonally adjusted 36 percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 4 points from September and 12 points above the historical average.
The two inventory components of the Optimism Index both downshifted, with the net percent with inventory “too low” falling 3 points to a net –3 percent, and planned inventory investments sliding 3 points as well to a net –1 percent.