As expected, the Congressional calendars for the 119th Congress came out, and based on the number of days that Congress has penciled in to be in Washington, 2025 is looking to be a very busy year. The incoming leadership has identified a number of consequential, challenging policy issues to address – some of which are discussed in this article – and maximizing their time in Washington will be essential to make meaningful progress on any of them.
Tax
This year is shaping up to be historic in the tax space. Tax lobbyists that we attend meetings with are dubbing 2025 as the “Super Bowl of Tax” and “Taxmageddon.” While we anticipated that tackling expired and expiring business tax benefits would be the first item out of the gate next year as part of a budget reconciliation package, it appears that President Trump and Republican leadership are going to first pursue other issues on which he campaigned. Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has announced he would like to see the outlines of a budget reconciliation bill within the first 30 days after Trump takes office.
According to the leadership staff we have spoken to, the GOP will pursue two distinct reconciliation packages. The first will focus on energy, border security, and military readiness/defense. The second package will focus singularly on tax and extending the business tax benefits enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
Using the budget reconciliation process circumnavigates the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, meaning that only a simple majority is needed to clear the upper chamber. As Republicans will hold 53 Senate seats in the 119th Congress, these measures are certain to pass, barring any GOP defections. Reconciliation has fairly strict parameters, but often has been used when one party controls both chambers of Congress and the White House.
The Hardwood Federation’s priorities in the second reconciliation bill will be restoring the full expensing tax benefit that has been phasing out over the last few years and is scheduled to take another 20 percent haircut in January. The plan is to restore 100 percent bonus depreciation back to 100 percent and do so retroactively. The other piece is reviving and extending the research and development (R&D) tax credit. As part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the ability of businesses to fully expense R&D costs in the same year those costs were incurred expired in 2022. Currently, those R&D costs have to be amortized over a five-year period – essentially making investments in your business more expensive.
Again, the plan is to restore and extend the full expensing of R&D costs and make the restoration retroactive. Also riding on this second train will be extending the 20 percent tax deduction for S-Corporations and other pass-through tax structures. This benefit also was put in place by the TCJA in an effort to introduce some semblance of tax parity between the rate larger C corporations negotiated and that which is assessed to smaller Main Street businesses. Unfortunately, this benefit expires at the end of 2025. The Hardwood Federation team will work with our allies in the business community and Congress to ensure this deduction is carried forward.
Farm Bill
The politics simply did not align between Democrats and Republicans in 2024 on a Farm Bill rewrite. However, during the Lame Duck session of Congress in November and December, the current Farm Bill was extended for one year. We anticipate that 2025 leadership on both the Agriculture Committees will yield different results in the new Congress. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will be new in the Ranking Member slot on the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee. She and incoming Chairman John Boozman (R-AR) have a good working relationship, and both have proven to be champions on key issues in the forestry and forest products sectors. In the House, Chairman GT Thompson (R-PA) will continue as chairman; Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) has stepped up to Rep. David Scott (D-GA).
While a new Farm Bill was not enacted in 2024, it was not an “all for naught” exercise. Many provisions surfaced in the House and Senate Farm Bill proposals were positive, including legislative language that would have doubled funding for the Market Access and Foreign Market Development Programs. Legislators also showed their support for grant programs at the Department of Agriculture that incentivize innovative wood product manufacturing and renewable heat and power projects that provide offtake for our sawmill residuals. The House Agriculture Committee-passed bill also includes forestry and forest products workforce development provisions that will help enhance the supply of trained employees who can work in our sawmills. The Hardwood Federation advocacy team looks to build on this progress, and we remain optimistic that a new Farm Bill will be signed into law sometime this year.
Trade
The president’s campaign rhetoric over the last year or so has been consistent on the international trade front. He has vowed to get tough with our trading partners and rely heavily on his favorite tool to level the international playing field – tariffs. As we are all painfully aware, the hardwood industry was dealt a devastating blow during the first Trump Administration when China imposed retaliatory tariffs on our hardwood products destined for markets there. The effect of these tariffs was felt literally overnight as export demand dropped off the table. The Hardwood Federation team, working with our executive committee, has been in frequent talks since the election on ways to prepare for a tariff war should one materialize. It is difficult to ascertain at this point whether the president is using the threat of tariffs simply to bring our trading partners to the negotiating table or if he is preparing to impose tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, and European Union countries. We are preparing for the latter and are in the process of communicating with the transition team and key members of Congress about the devastating effects tariffs would have on our sector. We will keep you regularly apprised of developments in this space and call on you to help us with our advocacy efforts should the tariff threat become a reality.
There will, of course, be many other policy issues that surface next year, but these three are top of mind for the Hardwood Federation and the ones for which we are preparing. As always, the Hardwood Federation team is here and engaged and will communicate developments regularly as the Congressional and new administration’s agenda takes shape.
Dana Lee Cole is the executive director at the Hardwood Federation, a Washington, D.C.-based hardwood industry trade association that represents thousands of hardwood businesses in every state in the United States and acts as the industry advocacy voice on Capitol Hill. She can be reached at dana.cole@hardwoodfederation.com.