The wood flooring industry is optimistic for growth in 2025, with more than 60 percent of respondents in our annual National Wood Flooring Association (NWFA) Industry Outlook survey expecting sales to increase. About a third expect sales to stay the same in 2025 versus 2024.
Expectations for 2024 were more muted. The election year is at the top of many members’ minds, and some respondents say they are seeing a slight softening in the market.
The latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, released in July 2024, forecasted annual expenditures for improvements and repairs to owner-occupied homes to decrease this year and into the first quarter of 2025 – but at a slower rate than initially forecast. Remodeling spending is anticipated to tick up through mid-year 2025.
In 2023, we saw cooling in single-family home building due to higher interest rates and construction costs. In June 2024, privately owned housing starts were 4.4 percent below the June 2023 rate. A limited amount of existing inventory and pent-up demand have fueled single-family construction, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
Conversely, multi-family construction shows signs of slowing from last year’s highs; multifamily starts were down sharply in June. Low inventory of existing homes will continue to encourage new construction at a slower pace.
Continued Shift to Natural Wood Colors and Finishes
Nearly 66 percent of NWFA members expect increased demand for cleaner, more natural wood colors in 2025. White oak remains a dominant selection.
“White oak has been in demand for the last few years and doesn’t look to be slowing down. People want white oak with a natural finish,” said Thomas Buxton, sales manager at Mountain Craft Wide Plank.
Several respondents said consumers are demanding:
- Longer, wider boards
- Engineered wood flooring
- Matte sheen
- Locally produced
Expectations for 2024 were more muted. The election year is at the top of many members’ minds, and some respondents say they are seeing a slight softening in the market.
“Engineered flooring continues to grow as the market becomes more educated and wants wider widths without seasonal movement,” a respondent to NWFA’s survey said. Another shared: “We’re seeing an increased demand for the raw wood look finish on wider planks. Everyone wants to keep it light and bright these days.” For one respondent, sales of hand-scraped woods were in decline, with lighter wire brushing taking the lead over heavily distressed and character-grade flooring.
According to the survey, consumers are avoiding:
- Dark colors
- Red oak
- Gray stains
- Imports
- Heavy character
Wood-Look Products
Competition from wood-look products (such as LVT, WPC, laminate) continues to have a negative effect on real-wood sales, according to 69 percent of respondents. Some say it is because wood-look products are advertised heavily and often cheaper than real wood flooring. Lack of consumer knowledge is another factor.
“While wood-look products will always be competition for us, once consumers understand the important differences between wood-look and real wood (quality, durability, sustainability, off-gassing), they see why real wood is the better choice. Those who do not, or are shopping solely for the lowest price, are not our customers,” said one respondent.
About 69 percent of respondents named LVT/WPC/SPC the biggest threat to real-wood products in 2024 and beyond.
“We’re seeing more of an invasion by LVT and luxury vinyl into our market share,” Kevin Evans, president at Rock Solid Hardwoods, said. “It has been gradually climbing, but the prefinished market has been more dominant now than ever. People are not looking for the custom site-finished floor as much as they are the prefinished installation.”
However, one NWFA member said: “I don’t see them as a long-term threat. Carpet, tile, and stone all have their place and a shared market with hardwood. Laminate and LVT will be an ongoing challenge for the next three to five years, but will trend out as consumers become educated.”
More than 82 percent of NWFA members report that they have been able to position real wood as a premium flooring option that demands a higher price. Despite higher-end flooring markets remaining historically insulated against pricing pressure, one member said even those clients are becoming more cost-conscious.
What would help members insulate against threats? Some say more competitive pricing and warranties on wood flooring, as well as lower shipping prices. Another said the industry needs to get better at telling its story and educating clients on the sustainability, environmental, and health benefits of real wood flooring.
“The wood flooring industry must combat the false message that resilient flooring is indestructible and the best choice for flooring. Educate the public that wood is the greenest flooring product on the market. Most hardwood is considered a 100-year floor that can change color with the trends. LVT products are petroleum-based and have a set color. As of today, there is no recycling program for the material. Any changes or damage results in replacement and material added to the landfill.”
One member said that the industry needs to market the eco-friendly factors of wood flooring and dispute misleading claims from other flooring types. “The push by the design market, media, and lower-end builders that it is bulletproof. This will be short-lived, but it is affecting the market.”
Another NWFA member said more claims are showing up, exposing the limitations of
those products.
Most NWFA Members See Supply Chain Improvements
Last year, 41 percent of NWFA members reported supply chain disruption. In this year’s survey, that number fell to 34 percent. While most members are experiencing improvements this year, some members still are experiencing extended lead times or unpredictable supply for raw materials: hardwood (29 percent), solid hardwood flooring (16 percent), and finishes (14 percent). Several members shared the same sentiment: Obtaining white oak is among the biggest challenges in 2024.
“The prefinished market has been more dominant now than ever. People are not looking for the custom site-finished floor as much as they are the prefinished installation.”
— Kevin Evans, president at Rock Solid Hardwoods
Members say the reasons for persistent supply chain hiccups include:
- Closure of small- and mid-sized mills
- High shipping costs
- Increased logging costs
- Limited labor market
- Existing mills can’t keep up
“When quoting upcoming jobs, we let our customers know of supply and demand issues and limited availability,” said Mike Karolitzky, regional sales manager at P.C. Hardwood Floors. “We let them know of price increases. If it’s something that they know they’ll need, order it today and put a deposit on it today so we can hold it. Otherwise, I can’t guarantee where it will be in a week or two.”
“We’re constantly unsure of what tomorrow will bring, but planning and having the right resources and partners keeps us in a good place,” said Steven Skutelsky, managing partner at PID Floors, added. “Pre-Covid, there was more assurance that quotes from 30/60/90 days ago would be in the same ballpark as today. Post-Covid, that’s not happening.”
Skilled Labor Challenges Remain
Nearly 57 percent of NWFA members still struggle to fill critical positions. Most respondents (78 percent) said the challenge is about the same as in 2023. According to one member, an aging workforce reaching retirement age also leaves gaps in skilled positions. Others blamed diminished work ethic for their labor shortages.
One NWFA member said: “Applicants that have a good work ethic and are willing to do the physical work are few and far between and get hired quickly. To find that one employee, be ready to review dozens, if not hundreds, of applicants.”
Another member said: “Hardwood flooring installation is considered a mid-skill career, easier to get into than electrician or plumber, but harder than general labor.”
“In certain parts of the country, like Maine, it’s tough to find qualified help because there is no licensing for flooring contractors,” said Richard Veilleux, vice president at Floor Systems. “They can buy a nail gun and saw, and they’re suddenly a hardwood floor installer.”
Those who have found some success in finding labor have used:
- Referrals (the most cited strategy)
- Channel partners (suppliers, distributors, retailers, contractors)
- Social media
- Classifieds/online job postings
- Local trade schools
- Competitors
- Local high schools
One member said: “Most of my employees have been with me for 15-20 years, installing and finishing. We pay above market value. That’s how you keep people.”
William Burnam, owner of Beautiful Wood Floors, thinks if small businesses could band under one umbrella for greater buying power on benefits like health insurance for team members, it could help attract qualified talent.
CONTRACTORS
Half of the NWFA contractors in the survey said their wood flooring sales were up in 2023, with another 27 percent reporting sales were the same or down (respectively) from 2022. About 43 percent expect wood flooring sales to increase in 2024.
One contractor said: “Home equity is still on the rise, and people still can use it for home improvement projects. People also are relocating from cities to smaller towns, and a new home purchase seems to stimulate the desire to upgrade the new place before moving in.”
Contractors in the survey are optimistic for 2025. About half expect sales of wood flooring to grow in 2025. Just 4 percent foresee a decline.
Contractors said material prices and costs to consumers were their top obstacles in selling wood flooring in 2024. One contractor recalled a quote from his father in a sales meeting in 1978: “If you close every sale, you have a problem. If you don’t close any sales, you really have a problem. You should get your fair share and a little bit more.”
Natural colors have been the most popular in the field for factory-finished flooring and refinishing existing flooring. One contractor said of the shift: “We’re seeing more natural-looking floors and getting away from the gray spectrums. Customers also seem more interested in hiring a branded company with in-house team members rather than allowing a remodel contractor or builder to provide a sub.”
Most contractors said the following has been true of most installations in 2024:
- Nail down or glue down with nail assist
- 3” to 5” planks, fewer installs of greater than 5”
- Installed over wood panel subfloor
- Water-based finishes
- Parquet (herringbone/chevron patterns)
- Staircases
Contractors shared some of their top opportunities going into 2025:
- “Becoming an NWFA Certified Professional”
- “Marketing and more sales”
- “Large custom homes over 5,000 sq. ft.”
- “Recoating gym floors and house remodeling”
- “Part of a new small business networking group”
- “Interest rate cuts”
- “Building relationships with custom home builders”
William and Wendy Burnam, co-owners of Beautiful Wood Floors, said the housing boom of luxury homes in their area during the early 2000s has led to extensive and frequent refinish and replacement work now.
“We were asked to come out and look at some flooring issues in a high-end home built about 12 years ago. The floor was finished with a wide plank-engineered product with a wear layer no more than two millimeters thick, the kind of inexpensive floor builders were putting in at that time. We learned that the designer who sold the interior package told the installer there would be no warranty unless it was installed with adhesive, which was also sold by the same manufacturer,” William Burnam said. “With that kind of adhesive, there’s no repairing the floor without destroying the subfloor. There’s no sanding and refinishing of that floor either. With that adhesive, a disposable floor became permanent, and the costs to remove are steep. That flooring is also no longer made, or the company doesn’t exist anymore, so the warranty isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. That homeowner thought they were investing in a floor that would add value to their real estate, and it ended up costing them more to replace.”
Kevin Evans, president at Rock Solid Hardwoods, said they are focused on improving efficiencies in sales and marketing in 2025: “Three months ago, we started a campaign with HubSpot. We use web-based and email-based systems to prospect clients and set up meetings. Our mailing program is constantly reevaluating where the market will buy line is.”
Regarding claims in 2024, more than half of NWFA contractors reported moisture claims as being a top complaint, followed by customer expectation claims. To combat that, most contractors said they provide education to their customers on floor maintenance. “We provide cleaners brand specific to our finishes and supply care information and links to YouTube videos created by various finish manufacturers we use,” said one.
Moisture as The Top Complaint
Most contractors said they provide education to their customers on floor maintenance. “We provide cleaners brand specific to our finishes and supply care information and links to YouTube videos created by various finish manufacturers we use,” said one.
DISTRIBUTORS
About 36 percent of NWFA distributors reported their companies’ wood flooring sales in 2023 were similar to 2022; more than 40 percent said sales were up. For the remainder of 2024, half of distributors expect growth in wood flooring sales. Some distributors say their lower expectations are due to less demand in the channel, a bad economy, government regulations, and inflation. Looking ahead to 2025, nearly two-thirds expect increased wood flooring sales. Fewer than 10 percent expect a significant decline.
“We’re seeing nice-sized orders for high-end jobs over 2,000 square feet, but smaller orders are coming in on builds for lower- or middle-income levels,” said Mike Karolitzky, regional sales manager at P.C. Hardwood Floors.
Product diversification and improvements to operations are the top opportunities for distributors in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. Plans for e-commerce expansion are interesting to note; a third of the respondents reported using e-commerce websites to sell online, and most of those who do not sell online said they do not plan to in the future.
Distributors’ plans to remain competitive include:
- Increase marketing
- Improve efficiencies
- Looking for new business opportunities
- Better systems and better vendors
Craig Dupra, co-founder and owner at Installers Warehouse, said adding new product categories, improving processes, and streamlining their supply chain are priority items for the remainder of 2024. “Some vendors have not been as proactive in updating their product lines in recent years. Retailers don’t want bare displays in their showrooms. That drove us to go out and see who we can partner with for new and interesting products.”
Dupra also stressed the importance of local inventory.
“The function that distributors provide manufacturers is based largely on local inventory. If you make 10 things, I can inventory 10 things. If you make 500 things, I can’t inventory every item. Manufacturers realize that with too many choices, distributors can’t represent them in the areas they need distribution because they won’t have local inventory to support.”
Katherine Lanz Dupra, co-founder and owner of Installers Warehouse, said: “Sampling is essential but not valued. Our business is based on not selling someone the wrong floor for the application. Do they have kids? Dogs? We make sure they go home with samples.”
Nearly 38 percent of distributor respondents said their share of the business that included LVT/WPC/laminate increased in 2024. A quarter of NWFA distributor members in the survey reported their wood flooring sales were growing more quickly than non-wood flooring products.
Karolitzky says people come in looking for vinyl, prompting him to ask more about their wants and needs. “They want a 30-year warranty or want a click system. I say that a wood floor has a lifetime warranty. Click systems tend to crack. You have to look at the bigger picture. Where’s it going? What’s the purpose of it? I also explain the environmental and health impacts from the carcinogens, plasticizers, and chemicals that make up vinyl.”
Nearly three-quarters of distributors said the economy is their biggest concern going into 2025. Manufacturers selling direct is another concern for about half of the distributors. “Most of what distributors do is mitigate claims. The problem with manufacturers selling direct is they can’t qualify their customers. When you sell to a professional, you don’t get claims. Anyone going directly to a consumer is sticking out their neck,” said one respondent.
Other top concerns include:
- Political climate
- Inflation
- Supply chain disruption
- Competition from local liquidators
One NWFA distributor is concerned about a potential housing bubble collapse. “The interest rate has not come down as much as they were projecting, and the housing market is not really moving. Real estate agents say there is limited inventory. Why is there a limited inventory? Well, no one’s selling. No one could afford to buy another house at a 7 percent mortgage. If they have a 3 percent, they’re likely to stay put. The cost of living is going up and skyrocketing. I’m seeing a trend with some builders being unable to pay their suppliers due to rising supply costs.”
Training on the products they sell remains important to NWFA distributors. Karolitzky added: “We have to keep fighting, explaining the benefits of real American hardwood to people, especially those who are environmentally conscious. If we keep to the standards and don’t lowball, we’ll become stronger on the other side.”
2025 Economic Concerns
Nearly three-quarters of distributors said the economy is their biggest concern going into 2025. Manufacturers selling direct is another concern for about half of the distributors.
MANUFACTURERS
Manufacturers’ expectations for 2024 full-year sales were favorable. A little less than half of manufacturers said they expected their 2024 sales of wood-floor products to be up. Reasons provided included a broader customer base and hardwood recouping market share. Nearly 27 percent forecast a moderate decline in full-year sales.
How can the wood flooring industry insulate against non-wood threats and continue to gain market share?
“We need to get past preaching to the choir and expand our advertising to the general public. We know why wood flooring is superior. We need to do aggressive advertising on social media, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok to convince the younger generation that, honest to goodness, we have the very best product for the earth for them to put in their house,” Bill Buchanan, managing partner at Buchanan Hardwoods, said. “It’s renewable, it’s sustainable, it’s recyclable. It’ll last. These hardwood floors have been out there for more than 100 years. Sure, you can find something cheaper. It’s made of plastic and may look like wood, but it’s not the real deal. Have you ever seen the giant plastic island floating in the middle of the ocean? Go online and take a look; it will scare you.”
“Of course, hardwood is more beautiful, but you can’t rely on aesthetics alone when making a case for real wood,” said Thomas Buxton, sales manager at Mountain Craft Wide Plank. “Focus on the sustainability and advantages of hardwood. It’s a lifetime product that can be sanded and re-stained to update the look. You can’t do that with a synthetic product.”
Looking ahead, manufacturers are optimistic, expecting sales for 2025 to continue an upward trend. About 70 percent expect growth next year, and just 7 percent expect a moderate decline. Manufacturers report that the top opportunity going into the second half of 2024 and 2025 is product diversification, followed by operational improvements, value-added services, and new distribution channels.
Like 2024, NWFA manufacturers were most concerned about the economy (65 percent) heading into 2025. Many manufacturers also worry about continued impacts from a volatile political climate (50 percent) and commodity-level pricing (46 percent).
Other concerns include:
- Competition from non-wood floor coverings
- Import manufacturers
Traditional wood-flooring distributors remain the most common go-to-market strategy for 64 percent of respondents. More than a quarter of respondents reported moderate price increases in 2024. However, half of NWFA manufacturers reported that pricing remained the same as the previous year. Half of NWFA manufacturers in the survey anticipate pricing remaining the same in 2025. About 42 percent will increase prices.
One manufacturer said that while prices for equipment and materials continue to rise, flooring prices have not, making it challenging to stay competitive in today’s labor market. “It’s a tight squeeze. Trying to find employees, pay them well, and treat them well. That is a challenge.”
Nearly 58 percent of manufacturers said raw material costs will increase in 2024, and half expect that trend to continue in 2025. Many say increased raw material costs come from demand for white oak, limited availability, market conditions, and poor weather conditions. Other responses included:
- “Manufacturing inputs have increased across the board.”
- “Supply and demand influence costs, availability, and the cost of shipping and handling in moving material.”
- “Most materials are staying the same, but the white oak lumber market is very tight, and the price is skyrocketing.”
- “Sawmills are extremely stressed due to wages, fixed costs, log prices, and government regulations.”
Nearly 70 percent of manufacturers in the survey have adopted automation and other technology to stay competitive. Examples include:
- CNC routers
- Moulder and defecting equipment
- Auto-nesting machine
- EBI scanners
- OSI planner
- Saw and conveyor automation
- Robotics
When asked if there was value in specifying NWFA Certified Professionals using products, many respondents said yes. “Our customers are making big investments, and we want those to be good investments,” said Buxton. “A big part of that is proper installation. Having certified installers helps our customers feel confident in their investments.”
RETAILERS
Wood flooring sales remained flat for the majority of NWFA retailers in 2023. Halfway through 2024, about a third of NWFA retailers in the survey expect an increase in revenues for wood flooring for the year. For those who expect sales to drop, the reasons included an uncertain economy and softened consumer trends. Looking ahead, more than two-thirds of retailers in the survey said they are optimistic for growth in 2025.
One retailer said: “Consumer trends are soft, and this may continue through a good portion of next year. There’s a lot of unknown ahead with the economy and housing market.”
Retailers in the survey reported the product that experienced the most dramatic increase in demand in 2024 was factory-finished engineered, followed by parquet, herringbone, chevron patterns, and factory-finished solid. The product type that has experienced the
most significant decrease in demand was antique reclaimed wood.
More than half of NWFA retailers who responded to the survey said their wood flooring sales grew more slowly than non-wood flooring products. And the majority expect the percentage of sales attributed to accessories (maintenance, upgrades, sundries, etc.) to stay the same. The same applies to sales attributed to services (install, refinishing, design, training, etc.).
Going into the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025, retailers see their top opportunities in product diversification and improvements to operations. Other opportunities heading into 2024 include finding new talent and value-added services.
Richard Veilleux, vice president at Floor Systems, said having a more standardized grading system for prefinished hardwood would increase consistency across the board and help customers communicate their wants and needs. “People come in with an idea
of what they want but can’t explain it because there’s no consistency from brand to brand.”
The political climate is a top concern for most NWFA retailers, followed by the economy and competition from non-wood and wood-look floor coverings.
“This is an exciting time in the wood industry,” said Steven Skutelsky, managing partner at PID Floors. “If you’re not waking up and falling asleep thinking about wood floors, you will get left behind. When things are calm, you don’t need to be a wood expert to make a sale. I think it will filter out the folks not passionate about wood floors. I think we are in a good place. We just need to keep our heads up.”
What Do Customers Want?
According to NWFA retailers, the top features customers shop for when looking for a new floor are attractiveness, durability, ease of maintenance, and price. Some retailers say their customers are taking the time to plan out flooring choices and want manufacturer samples.
To become more competitive moving into the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025, retailers reported plans that include:
- Improve sales processes
- Email marketing to past and present customers
- Increased focus on residential remodels and new construction
- Creative marketing and product development
- Manage pricing
- Add staff
Most (85 percent) of the retailers in the survey reported that they do not sell online through an e-commerce website.
Skutelsky said their company just celebrated 35 years in business, and some of their plans for 2025 include aggressive marketing and expansion. “Of course, we’re nervous. We’re optimistic. We can only control what we can control. But we don’t think six weeks or six months ahead. We’re thinking two or three years ahead and how to best position ourselves as a leader.”
One NWFA retailer shared, “Nothing is more important than a client loving their floors and referring us to their friends and family because of the great job we do.”
According to NWFA retailers, the top features customers shop for when looking for a new floor are attractiveness, durability, ease of maintenance, and price. Retailers in the survey said moisture claims, milling claims, and installation-related claims were the most prevalent.
Some retailers say their customers are taking the time to plan out flooring choices and want manufacturer samples. “We’re in a very design-oriented industry,” said Veilleux. “People want to see, touch, and feel flooring to ensure it’s right.”
Looking Forward
EDUCATE CLIENTS AND UTILIZE RESOURCES
Nearly 65 percent of NWFA members said improving processes for greater efficiencies was a top priority for 2025.
Other top responses included:
- Add new product categories, lines, or services
- Invest in or leverage existing technology for growth
“For the last couple of years, I’ve focused on educating my clients about the processes and products I use in my company,” said one respondent. “It’s the only way to differentiate where their money is going.”
Another said that process improvement will get the most bang for the buck with rising unemployment rates.
“Take advantage of the NWFA University and the resources NWFA has spent years putting together for members,” said Skutelsky. “Get educated, get knowledgeable, and understand what’s going on in the market so that we can explain to clients who are not wood pros, who don’t think about wood floors every day, what it means to have a wood floor in their home.
Educate them on why it’s good for the environment and a better choice, even if it is a bit more expensive upfront. Be an advocate for real wood floors instead of going back and forth on price.”
Karolitzky also urges members to take advantage of resources provided by NWFA. “It has been great being an NWFA member. Follow their lead. They’re the leader in the industry guidelines; they’re always there to provide information and guide us.”
Evans has been an NWFA member for almost 30 years. “If you want to be successful, pay attention to market trends and adapt,” he said. “Change is constant. Growth is optional. To maintain market share, people need to know your story, who you are, and how you do business.”
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Shannon Gayton is part of the team at 3 Aspens Media. In partnership with NWFA, 3 Aspens Media conducted an online survey of NWFA members and Hardwood Floors magazine readers, interviewed respondents, analyzed results, and produced this report. Contact info@3aspensmedia.com with questions.